Topic: Chinese economic and geopolitical strategy
General Qiao Liang' speech, which we've been allowed to publish, was delivered at the University
of Defense, China’s top military school. It casts a light on China’s new strategic thinking.
This document, which general Qiao Liang has allowed us to publish, was delivered at the
University of Defense, China’s top military school, where the general is in charge of the education
curriculum for the officers. The speech therefore must have the endorsement of the leaders of the
school and ultimately also of the president of the Military Commission, Mr. Xi Jinping.
The document casts a light on China’s new strategic thinking. Beijing’s biggest challenge is not
geopolitical but economic. This derives from a cold and cruel analysis of US behavior since 1944,
the time of the Bretton Woods agreement, and more importantly since 1971, with the dollar
decoupling from gold, and 1973 with the US imposing the use of the petro-dollar. Qiao Liang
argues that the US goal in all these years was not just geopolitical; it was to accrue profits, and the
US found a way, after the disastrously costly wars with North Korea and especially Vietnam, to
make a profit out of regional crisis, with or without war. The general finds a dollar cycle of about
16 years: for 10 the US currency is weak, for 6 it is strong. The beginning of the strong dollar
corresponds with a regional crisis that crashes a regional economy.
However, the US failed in its latest attempt to create a regional crisis around China in 2012
because Beijing didn’t fall for the US trap and get drawn into conflict with Japan or the Philippines
over the Senkaku or the Scarborough Shoals. Qiao Liang is confident that China will not fall for a
regional crisis and believes that new dramatic changes are ahead of us. The new bit money, which
could well grow to dominate world finance, is challenging old transaction processes, and 3D
printing may dramatically change production methods. These changes create a situation totally new
for everybody and here Qiao Liang says the US should collaborate with other countries.
Therefore, according to this dispassionate analysis, China not only doesn’t see the necessity to fight
a war but believes that a war directly or indirectly against America would be against Chinese
national interests. It thinks that Washington will not fight Beijing for the next ten years, but to make
sure that in ten years the US doesn’t change its mind, China must set its affairs in order and
internationalize its currency, the RMB. This broad strategic vision also provides a deep justification
for the ongoing anti-corruption campaign. China must hurry to overhaul its economy to face the
risks of the next decade. If it doesn’t do it now, in a decade it could well be doomed.
It's a long read, but seems worth it so far.